Despite a sluggish February, general revenue (GR) collections remain on track to meet the fiscal year (FY) 2016 revenue estimate. Net of refunds, February GR collections declined 0.5 percent, leaving the FY 2016 overall growth rate at 3.0 percent. Should overall growth continue at this level, the state will attain the 2.8 percent growth rate that is called for the new Executive Budget that was presented by Governor Nixon to the General Assembly in mid-January.
Individual Income Tax gross collections rose only 0.8 percent in February relative to February of 2015. Even with this relatively weak performance for the month, the FY 2016 overall growth rate remains at a very respectable 5.7 percent.
Sales and Use Tax gross collections posted a strong February with collections increasing 6.6 percent. The February results brought the FY 2016 overall growth rate to 3.2 percent. This growth rate is consistent with the FY 2016 forecast growth rate of 3.0 percent…
Corporate Income/Franchise Tax gross collections totaled only $2.2 million in February which was a decline of about 81 percent for the month. For the eight month period ending February 29th, gross Corporate collections have fallen 8.1 percent. Some improvement in this area will be needed over the final four months f or the state to meet the FY 2016 forecast for this tax.
GR Refunds have increased 15.6 percent over the first eight months of FY 2016. This is a major negative result from the first eight months of FY 2016. The Governor’s revenue forecast is for GR Refunds to increase 9.5 percent for the year. March and April are both major refund months. Growth in refunds or lack thereof during the next two months will play a key role in determining the state’s fiscal health as FY 2016 concludes on June 30th.